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North American Network Operators Group Date Prev | Date Next | Date Index | Thread Index | Author Index | Historical Re: exponential route prefix growth, was: Re: The Cidr Report
At 15:38 09/22/2000 -0400, Kai Schlichting wrote: > >At Friday 03:00 PM 9/22/00, Tony Bates wrote: > >>Check http://www.employees.org/~tbates/cidr.plot.html for a plot >>of the table history. > >Is this just me, or has noone commented on this in a while? >Somehow we are seeing an exponential growth in the number of prefixes >in the last 12 months, while it was linear for the 5 years >before that ( http://www.employees.org/~tbates/cidr.hist.plot.html )... Actually, I have been looking at Tony's plots of active AS numbers for some time, and every time I do, I get a nervous twitch in my gut. Thanks for your post, Kai... You inspired me to do the obvious analysis. It turns out that the trend did not suddently become exponential; rather, it was exponential all the time, as near as I can figure. Tony was kind enough to ship me his source data. I cleaned up the obvious outliers (significant deviation from monotonic non-decreasing, i.e. the big dips in his graph) by hand and ran a quick exponential regression. The R-squared (goodness of fit) for the full sequence going back to 1996 comes out at .9957 - as good a fit as you are ever likely to see on real data. It's a beautiful, textbook result. Exponential! If I did not fat finger the math, the implications are obvious, and troubling. - Scott (speaking only for himself)
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