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## Re: Any recent predictions for routing table growth?

• Date: Tue Nov 04 11:59:27 2008

```Thank you very much David, the Routing Growth estimates is exactly the
research I was after.

2008/11/4 David Andersen <[email protected]>

> Hey, Brad - the latest I know of are ours, but I'm possibly out of date:
>
> http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dga/papers/aip-sigcomm2008-abstract.html<http://www.cs.cmu.edu/%7Edga/papers/aip-sigcomm2008-abstract.html>
>
> Look in section 4.1.  The #s were from routeviews, June 30, 2008.  The
> gist:
>
> June 2008:  247K entries
> Growth rate:  17% per year
>
> So - June 2009:  288k
>
> There's an embarrassing typo in the formula in the paper - it says "2.07 *
> 10^4" as the base, when it's obvious that it means 2.47 * 10^5.  Sigh.  I'll
> get that corrected. :)
>
> Also note that our #s differ a bit from, say, CIDR report since we used
> routeviews as our baseline.  If you use the june 6, 2008 CIDR report as your
> starting point, which starts at 267k, the 17% exponential growth would
> predict that the October 31, 2008 CIDR report would report 284k prefixes;
>  in reality, it reported 286.  So, reasonably close.  But you want to start
> with the # of prefixes that YOU observe, since that's going to be a little
> different depending on your vantage point.
>
> Plug in:
>
> STARTING_NUM_PREFIXES * e^(NUM_DAYS_ELAPSED * 0.0004253)
>
> e.g., 267000 * e^(147 * 0.0004253)
>
> and you'll have a pretty decent prediction unless things change course. :)
>
>
> On Nov 3, 2008, at 6:38 PM, Brad Freeman wrote:
>
>  Hi,
>>
>> I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing table
>> growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince
>> Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or
>> alternative
>> figures out?
>>
>> Thanks
>>