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Re: Any recent predictions for routing table growth?
Thank you very much David, the Routing Growth estimates is exactly the research I was after. 2008/11/4 David Andersen <[email protected]> > Hey, Brad - the latest I know of are ours, but I'm possibly out of date: > > http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dga/papers/aip-sigcomm2008-abstract.html<http://www.cs.cmu.edu/%7Edga/papers/aip-sigcomm2008-abstract.html> > > Look in section 4.1. The #s were from routeviews, June 30, 2008. The > gist: > > June 2008: 247K entries > Growth rate: 17% per year > > So - June 2009: 288k > > There's an embarrassing typo in the formula in the paper - it says "2.07 * > 10^4" as the base, when it's obvious that it means 2.47 * 10^5. Sigh. I'll > get that corrected. :) > > Also note that our #s differ a bit from, say, CIDR report since we used > routeviews as our baseline. If you use the june 6, 2008 CIDR report as your > starting point, which starts at 267k, the 17% exponential growth would > predict that the October 31, 2008 CIDR report would report 284k prefixes; > in reality, it reported 286. So, reasonably close. But you want to start > with the # of prefixes that YOU observe, since that's going to be a little > different depending on your vantage point. > > Plug in: > > STARTING_NUM_PREFIXES * e^(NUM_DAYS_ELAPSED * 0.0004253) > > e.g., 267000 * e^(147 * 0.0004253) > > and you'll have a pretty decent prediction unless things change course. :) > > > On Nov 3, 2008, at 6:38 PM, Brad Freeman wrote: > > Hi, >> >> I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing table >> growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince >> Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or >> alternative >> figures out? >> >> Thanks >> >> Bradley >> >> >