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North American Network Operators Group Date Prev | Date Next | Date Index | Thread Index | Author Index | Historical Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010
On Fri, Apr 18, 2008 at 2:15 PM, Scott Francis <[email protected]> wrote: > http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html > > I find claims that "soon everything will be HD" somewhat dubious > (working for a company that produces video for online distribution) - I think that is based off the all American TV going to HDD that is supposed to happen in 2009. ( I think I read that currently only 40% of Americans have HDD TV's and the 60% were not going to buy one until it became too late. ) > although certainly not as eyebrow-raising as "in 3 years' time, 20 > typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet > today". Is there some secret plan to put 40Gb ethernet to "typical > households" in the next 3 years that I haven't heard about? I don't > have accurate figures on how much traffic "the entire Internet" > generates, but I'm fairly certain that 5% of it could not be generated > by any single household regardless of equipment installed, torrents > traded or videos downloaded. Even given a liberal application of > Moore's Law, I doubt that would be the case in 2010 either. > > Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims were (if > they even had a basis at all)? Internal reports from ATT engineering? > Perusal of industry news sources? IRC? A lot of scary numbers were Maybe he has been trading on "the Internet is going to die" since 1981 and his shorts on the Internet are coming due in 2010? I mean this sounds as much like all the other pump and dump things I have read :). > tossed into the air without any mention of how they were derived. A > cynical person might be tempted to think it was all a scare tactic to > soften up legislators for the next wave of "reasonable network > management" practices that just happen to have significant revenue > streams attached to them ... > -- > [email protected]{gmail.com,darkuncle.net} || 0x5537F527 > http://darkuncle.net/pubkey.asc for public key > > _______________________________________________ > NANOG mailing list > [email protected] > http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog > -- Stephen J Smoogen. -- CSIRT/Linux System Administrator How far that little candle throws his beams! So shines a good deed in a naughty world. = Shakespeare. "The Merchant of Venice" _______________________________________________ NANOG mailing list [email protected] http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
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