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North American Network Operators Group Date Prev | Date Next | Date Index | Thread Index | Author Index | Historical Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted
On Fri, Jul 13, 2007 at 07:04:56AM -0400, Robert Blayzor wrote: > > Jeff Kell wrote: > >If we continue along orders of magnitude, sure it's foreseeable. > > > >* 30 years ago, 300 baud was the bomb :-) > >* 3000 baud was roughly 2400bps days > >* 30000 baud gets us to ~28.8k > >* 300000 baud was about 2 ISDN lines (2x128k) > >* 3000000 baud is about typical cable these days (3m) > > > Well using your logic, then it's partially true that 40G is not any time > soon. Especially considering fiber is in less than 1% of homes. Lets > not forget that all of the above has been established on existing > facilities that have been in homes for 30-50+ years. hmm.. at least here in the UK cable companies built out during the 90s in just a few years covering a large % of the population. upgrades in CO technology (DSLA Ms etc) seems to occur every 4-5yrs too so I dont think anything radical can be considered unachievable if you allow 5-10yrs for rollout > > You say 30 years ago, and lets roughly estimate it's four to five years > between those technologies above, which gets us to today. It's going to > take at least another 5 years to consider FTTP "the norm" at say 30M, > maybe sooner with technologies with DOCSIS 2.0, etc. So... > > 30M Is Today +4/5 years > 300M Is Today +8/10 years > 3G Is Today +12/15 years > 30G Is Today +16/20 years I was thinking about this bandwidth question recently too altho a bit differentl y. 1991 = 14.4kbps dialup 1994 = 28kbps dialup 1995 = 33kbps 1996 = 56kbps dialup 2000 = 512k dsl 2006 = 10Mb cable/dsl approximately speaking we increase an order of magnitude every 5 years, so perha ps we can expect: 2010 = 50Mb 2015 = 500Mb 2020 = 5Gb 2025 = 50Gb so our estimates are similar :) my guess is that wont be achieved with OC768 either.. i dont know if we can go t hat far with copper but it wouldnt surprise me. Steve > > If it's sooner all the better. Keeping in mind, installations like > Verizon FiOS don't run dedicated strands of glass to each home, they use > PON. So achieving anywhere near 40G on even the existing stuff they're > running into homes may not be possible for quite some time... > > PS -- baud != bps > > -Robert
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