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Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11
On Feb 11, 2007, at 4:22 PM, Geo. wrote:
I terms of available HD content, you're far more likely to face 10,000 customers whatching 1,000 different channels, and,
there will likely be some clustering. In that case, IDMR will help a lot with the exception of the last 2 miles, where, the
amount of bandwidth available to the home will probably remain the limiting factor for some time in the US.
I places where MAE is a common household network delivery mechanism, this is less of a factor. I think it will
probably take the US a decade or so to get to where much of Europe and Japan is today.
IPTV today isn't an improvement, much as VOIP 5 years ago had nothing to offer over POTS.
Today, VOIP is rapidly gaining popularity even though the differentiators for it are small because
it does provide some cost savings in some cases.
As IPTV and especially HD IPTV starts to mature, and, as users begin to reclaim fair use and
space/time/device shifting rights that are theirs under the copyright act and take back what
the MPAA and RIAA continue to try to block, the rapid and convenient sharing of content,
the reduced cost of delivery to the content providers, and, other factors will eventually cause
IPTV to present an improvement over today's existing unidirectional services.
Today IPTV is in its infancy and is strictly a novelty for early adopters. As the technology
matures and as the market develops an understanding of the possibilities creating pressure
on manufacturers and content providers to offer better, it will gradually become compelling.
TIVO type setup with a massive archive of every show so you can not only watch this weeks episode but you can tivo download any show from the last 6 years worth of your favorite series is one heck of a draw over cable or satellite and might be enough to motivate the public to move to a different service. A better tivo than tivo. As for making money, just stick a commercial on the front of every download. How many movies are claimed downloaded on the fileshare networks every week?There are lots of ways to make money. Personally, I think the long- term winning model
will be something similar to Netflix with IP replacing the USPO at layers 1-4. Other
models will certainly be tested and probably some of them will succeed, too. However,
Netflix without the postal delays or logistics could be compelling, even if it were
1.5-2x the current Netflix pricing. Realistically, we should get to a point in the technology
relatively soon where a movie can be shipped across the net for about the same
cost as postage today.