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Re: Is your ISP Influenza-ready?

  • From: Etaoin Shrdlu
  • Date: Fri Apr 21 10:52:03 2006 
Joseph S D Yao wrote:

On Tue, Apr 18, 2006 at 08:29:10PM -0400, Barry Shein wrote:


According to the wikipedia's quote of WHO the weighted average
mortality rate, which would be across 50 human cases, is 66% in 2006,
and 56% across all 194 cases reported since 2004.



Is there a report which extrapolates the UNREPORTED cases and estimates
the mortality rate from that?  [And does anyone have any basis on which
to make these guesses?]




Let's extrapolate from an event that I know of, and remember. In 1976, a
particularly dangerous strain of flu, Victoria, was the influenza du
jour. As in most strains, there were two versions: Victoria-B, where
your life sucked for a few days, and then you got on with it, and
Victoria-A, which was life threatening, and BTW, yet another "bird flu"
entry. I'm not going to post a bunch of links, but if you want
entertainment (or validation) "influenza victoria 1976" in Google will
give you hours of interesting data.



I had the A strain, and was gravely ill. My lungs are scarred as though
I had had tuberculosis, and I'm grateful that was the only damage. In
just the area I lived in, there were multiple deaths reported. The
outbreaks were localized, but quite dramatic in those geographical areas
where it took off. I don't mean to add to the hysteria, but I also would
prefer that you not discount it. Much will depend on your local area, on
whether people are tightly clustered (NYC, LA), or thinly populated
(Wyoming, North Dakota).





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