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Re: Is your ISP Influenza-ready?

  • From: Etaoin Shrdlu
  • Date: Fri Apr 21 10:52:03 2006

Joseph S D Yao wrote:
On Tue, Apr 18, 2006 at 08:29:10PM -0400, Barry Shein wrote:

According to the wikipedia's quote of WHO the weighted average
mortality rate, which would be across 50 human cases, is 66% in 2006,
and 56% across all 194 cases reported since 2004.

Is there a report which extrapolates the UNREPORTED cases and estimates
the mortality rate from that?  [And does anyone have any basis on which
to make these guesses?]
Let's extrapolate from an event that I know of, and remember. In 1976, a particularly dangerous strain of flu, Victoria, was the influenza du jour. As in most strains, there were two versions: Victoria-B, where your life sucked for a few days, and then you got on with it, and Victoria-A, which was life threatening, and BTW, yet another "bird flu" entry. I'm not going to post a bunch of links, but if you want entertainment (or validation) "influenza victoria 1976" in Google will give you hours of interesting data.

I had the A strain, and was gravely ill. My lungs are scarred as though I had had tuberculosis, and I'm grateful that was the only damage. In just the area I lived in, there were multiple deaths reported. The outbreaks were localized, but quite dramatic in those geographical areas where it took off. I don't mean to add to the hysteria, but I also would prefer that you not discount it. Much will depend on your local area, on whether people are tightly clustered (NYC, LA), or thinly populated (Wyoming, North Dakota).

"You can't have in a democracy various groups with arms - you have to have the state with a monopoly on power," Condoleeza Rice, the US secretary of state, said at the end of her two-day visit to
Baghdad yesterday. ...No Comment