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Re: shim6 @ NANOG (forwarded note from John Payne)

  • From: Stephen Sprunk
  • Date: Mon Mar 06 18:18:41 2006 
Thus spake "Daniel Golding" <[email protected]>

On 3/6/06 10:25 AM, "Stephen Sprunk" <[email protected]> wrote:

So, unless there's policy change, most end-user orgs will have no
choice but to pay the market rate for IPv4 addresses.  Spot markets
are good when demand is elastic, but we're faced with a market that
has growing inelastic demand that will outstrip fixed supply in a
decade.  Capitalism doesn't handle that well.
There will be a average cost per host to transition from v4 to v6. When the
cost of IPv4 addresses exceeds the transition cost, then you have the one
thing missing from IPv6 discussions: an ROI.
Please quantify the cost of not being able to multihome your mission-critical business. Compare to the cost of obtaining an IPv4 PI block. Both are likely to exceed the possible revenue for small businesses at some point not too far off.

IPv6 is not a replacement for IPv4 today; it's less attractive for a number of reasons, and running out of IPv4 addresses will only solve one (maybe two) of the problems.

Many organizations wont even look at this without an ROI. Folks who
want to see v6 adopted would be well advised to support the creation
of a hard ROI through these means.
That'd be interesting to see, but there's just too many variables we don't (and can't) have numbers for yet. Maybe it'd be a useful exercise to at least identify what needs to be quantified...

ARIN (and/or RIPE, APNIC) should really use a bit of their budget
surplus to provide a few grants to economics professors who are experts
in commodity market issues. As engineers, we grope in the dark
concerning fairly well established scientific principles we are unfamiliar
with. Its like reinventing the wheel. :(
That would require the RIRs to admit that IP addresses are marketable commodities, which is something that, to date, they have refused to do.

S

Stephen Sprunk "Stupid people surround themselves with smart
CCIE #3723 people. Smart people surround themselves with
K5SSS smart people who disagree with them." --Aaron Sorkin