North American Network Operators Group
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Re: classful routes redux

  • From: Geoff Huston
  • Date: Fri Nov 04 19:20:45 2005 
At 11:10 AM 5/11/2005, Randy Bush wrote:

>> no waffling.  you said october 14th, and we're holding you to it!
>> we would like to know about what time of day, so we can schedule
>> lunch and coffee.
> well, the figures indicate that RIPE will receive 10 requests on that day,
> and will start the day with 5 left in their pool. So the first allocation
> processed after lunch will fail - so that would mean at 2:00 pm CET on the
> 14th October 2010 - or thereabouts! :-).
                         v
uh, won't that be 14:00 CST?  as we don't do summertime here,
this difference will impact my first cuppa.
my mistake - yes, that will be CST rather than CET

I trust that this adjustment will not impact your scheduling of the lunch and coffee caterers :-)

As you point out, the IP issue is much harder, and because the transition is so markedly different from the AS one the dynamics of exhaustion of the unallocated IP V4 address pool will undoubtedly be different (and much harder to use relatively simple numerical methods to predict). I could use the word "panic" but as we are all responsible and careful players here let's just call it the looming scenario of folk looking at "last chance direct IPv4 address allocations" in the near term future. I'd be interested if anyone here has some generic modelling tools that include modelling of such so-called 'panic' situations, as I'd be interested to apply it to this situation in various ways.


Geoff