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Re: IPv6 news

  • From: william(at)
  • Date: Wed Oct 12 15:38:39 2005

On Wed, 12 Oct 2005, Randy Bush wrote:

if you look at the recent ipv4 burn rate of ripe and apnic
especially, we run out of v4 space in about three years.  this
should not be surprising, as it matches what frank was saying
a decade ago at ale.

so having dual stack backbones is very important.  but ...

four years from now, when marissa can't get v4 space from an
rir/lir and so gets v6 space, she will not be able to use 99%
of the internet because no significant number of v4 end hosts
will have bothered to be v6 enabled because there was no
perceived market for it.
I think more likely is the scenario where Marissa would get NATed
IPv4 address (NAT server at the ISP end) and one or more direct IPv6 addresses. The question would then be if Marissa is likely to use
the kind of applications where the direct address would become very important to her, but so far from what I know of DSL users, most are
just fine behind their home NAT firewalls and only few need direct addresses. But of those "few" many are those doing P2P sharing
especially with BitTorent and this application requires open port
on the user end, so in fact P2P and BT may prove to be the cornerstone
to getting wider use of IPv6 after we ran out of v4 space...

William Leibzon
Elan Networks
[email protected]