North American Network Operators Group

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Re: IPv6 news

  • From: Randy Bush
  • Date: Wed Oct 12 15:14:21 2005

good news.  but ....

if you look at the recent ipv4 burn rate of ripe and apnic
especially, we run out of v4 space in about three years.  this
should not be surprising, as it matches what frank was saying
a decade ago at ale.

so having dual stack backbones is very important.  but ...

four years from now, when marissa can't get v4 space from an
rir/lir and so gets v6 space, she will not be able to use 99%
of the internet because no significant number of v4 end hosts
will have bothered to be v6 enabled because there was no
perceived market for it.

there will likely be a dangerous period between v4 exhaustion
and significant v6 presence where v6-only folk will be in a
very bad place.

geoff's predictions for a very lively market in v4 space will
seriously come into play.