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North American Network Operators Group Date Prev | Date Next | Date Index | Thread Index | Author Index | Historical Re: connectivity outside the US
What you are describing is reasonable in a truly open market environment. However, the cost of committing to $650K to $800K for E1s limits the field significantly. Especially when the carriers bid on a large portion of the available bandwidth. The availability of 100G loops will be diminished by the more financially sound carriers (i.e., Telstra). I think you know those guys. When you look at the demand between now and the year 2000 and you guys will be looking at consuming +200M of the bandwidth for IP services and God knows how much for the more traditional services. Even though the investment has remained relatively constant the market pricing has not. I don't see it being a game for the faint hearted. And the massive consumption from the likes of AT&T, BT/MCI and Worldcom will greatly influence the pricing. You may see a trend towards reducing the price for the bulk buyers/investors, but it will not likely come down as fast as your predict for the low to moderate users. Your assessment may be right, but I am not so sure we will see it before the year 2000. Mark ---------- > From: Geoff Huston <[email protected]> > To: Mark Ansboury <[email protected]> > Cc: Sean M. Doran <[email protected]>; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] > Subject: Re: connectivity outside the US > Date: Sunday, June 01, 1997 6:04 PM > > Supply and demand - the cables which are being commissioned in late 98 and > 99 look to be 100G loop designs in bot the Pacific and Atlantic > environments. The system price looks like remaining pretty constant - > around $500M give or take a few hundred mil - despite a 50 fold increase in > capacity. Its reasonable to expect a radical bottoming out of unit price > for IRUs sometime in 99 for these cables. What does that mean? The scarcity > premium in cable price which will be evident through 98 will be eliminated > in 99 and insterad you'll see a return to a technology-indexed unit price, > where the price will reflect the basic project costs And given the increase > in cable capacity due to WDM deployment you can expect a unit price drop. > > > > At 12:18 PM 1/6/97 +1000, Mark Ansboury wrote: > The cost for > >overseas cables are not going to be coming down in a big way over the next > >couple of years. They will more likely go up. At least for our foreseeable > >future. The next few years. The pent up demand is to great. >
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