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North American Network Operators Group Date Prev | Date Next | Date Index | Thread Index | Author Index | Historical Re: MFS WorldCom/WilTel/LDDS
Perry E. Metzger <[email protected]> wrote: >> Excuse me, but bandwidth demand doubles in about half year, >> while Moore's law is that semiconductor capacity doubles every >> 2 years. There's no indication that this will change any time >> soon. >> >> Nice brick wall :) >I doubt it. I doubt it too, but for entirely different reason. >The curve is racing upward now because of all the people >who are suddenly connecting to the net. Once a large fraction of them >are on the curve will slow dramatically -- demand for bandwidth will >continue to increase, but only as fast as the customers can eat it, >which is by definition related to how fast their equipment runs. Ah, you forgot that Internet is not a single-technology medium. It is not a single wave of customers, it is going to be waves after waves following customer acceptance of newer technologies -- watch Internet telephony, video telephony, 3-D videocom, or whatever bandwidth hog of tomorrow it will be. >There will be some problems between now and the time things slow down, >but... There is a very strong suspiction that Internet is not going to slow down, as new bandwidth-intensive technologies will keep popping up. There's already 20 years of growth fueled by introduction of e-mail, USENET, Web. In a sense it's very much like Moore's Law -- nobody knows what new technology will sustain the trend tomorrow, but the trend is pretty stable. --vadim - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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