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North American Network Operators Group Date Prev | Date Next | Date Index | Thread Index | Author Index | Historical Re: North America not interested in IP V6
On Fri, 1 Aug 2003 14:32:39 +0100 [email protected] wrote: > > >I have been plotting the IPv6 ASNs for some time. These should be the > >ISPs running IPv6. See: > >http://www.nlnetlabs.nl/ipv6/measurements/index.html > > It would be interesting to see an analysis that combines this data with > Geoff Huston's IPv4 analysis > http://www.potaroo.net/ispcolumn/2003-07-v4-address-lifetime/ale.html > and see if we can predict the point at which the number of IPv6 addresses > deployed begins to exceed the number of IPv4 addresses deployed? I realize > that the IPv6 analysis is routes only, but one should be able to > determine how many addresses are available in each ASN. > > One could reasonably assume that at the point where the Internet shifts to > IPv6 as the core protocol, more than half of the interfaces with an IPv4 > address will also have an IPv6 address. So to get to that point, one could > make some assumptions about the allocation of IPv6 /48's based on the > observed trends in IPv4 /32's. > > I'm not sure where one would take this, but I think a lot of people would > be interested in seeing some type of well-presented analysis of these > questions. > It's not worth doing a fine analysis to predict so far in the future - a back of the envelope will do just fine :) Look at ASN : http://www.nlnetlabs.nl/ipv6/measurements/index.html shows that IPv6 ASN (as seen fron NLNetLabs) are doubling about every 1.75 years, and are about 340 now. So, IPv6 ASN can be modeled as N_6 = 340 x 2^(T/1.75) where T = time - 2003.5 in years. Now, IPv4 ASN withb routing are growing linearly lately (see Figure 2b in http://www.multicasttech.com/status/index.html for example) and can be roughly modeled as N_4 = 15000 + 1750 x (t - 2003.5) = 15000 + 1750 T Set N_4 = N_6 and we see that the number of IPv4 and IPv6 ASN with routing will be equal in a little less than 12 years (T ~ 11.75), or some time in the Spring of 2015. This is far enough into the future that I do not think that it is realistic to be more rigorous than this. Regards Marshall Eubanks > --Michael Dillon > > >
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